Weekly Brief · Public preview
Iraq Leads a Selective Deterioration Week
A selective deterioration week led by Iraq, with additional publication-grade cases in Turkey, DR Congo, and Cuba.
Public read
This issue is best read as a selective but diverse deterioration week. The analytical story of W11 is not dominated by one mechanism alone: Iraq registered war spillover into its territorial waters, Turkey showed a concrete repression and judicial-hardening moment, Cuba crossed into rare violent anti-government unrest, and DR Congo saw a clear tactical escalation through lethal drone strikes in Goma.
Outside the lead case, W11 also produced publication-grade deterioration cases in Turkey, Cuba, and DR Congo, while the watch layer widened with four new entries and three cooling-off moves.
Mar 9–15, 2026 in brief
- Lead case
- Iraq
- Published cases
- 4
- Watch cases
- 24
- Mechanism
- Border / military escalation
Observatory access
Full access opens the complete Weekly Brief: lead-case treatment, additional published cases, watch-layer interpretation, evidence notes, country continuity, confidence notes, and next watchpoints.
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