Research
Shorter DriftSignals writing on country sequences, institutional shifts, public pressure, elections, governance stress, and methodological questions.
Research Notes sit between the recurring briefings and the deeper Observatory: more focused than a monthly review, more interpretive than a data table, and grounded in the same evidence-led discipline.
Published notes
Research Notes give DriftSignals room to examine a country, mechanism, institution, election cycle, or methodological question without turning every observation into a full weekly or monthly product.
Regional spillover has become a struggle over who sets southern Lebanon’s border order: Israel through force, Hezbollah through resistance, or the Lebanese state through constrained diplomacy.
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March did not produce a classic protest wave in Cuba. It revealed a more consequential shift: chronic scarcity is becoming a visible crisis of governability.
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