Lebanon Leads a Selective Deterioration Week
A selective hybrid deterioration week led by Lebanon, with additional publication-grade cases in Hungary, Iran, and Ireland.
Open issue →Signals
Signals
DriftSignals turns public evidence into interpretable signals of political drift across countries and over time.
The public signal layer currently includes two editorial products: the Weekly Hotspots Brief, a selective weekly signal focused on meaningful deterioration and monitored continuity, and the Monthly Geopolitical Risk Review, a selective monthly synthesis built from reviewed weekly deterioration.
Weekly reviewed deterioration
Monthly analytical synthesis
Continuity across countries and time
Flagship weekly signal
Weekly Hotspots Brief
Selective weekly signal on meaningful deterioration, its drivers, and cases that warrant continued watch.
Lebanon Leads a Selective Deterioration Week
A selective hybrid deterioration week led by Lebanon, with additional publication-grade cases in Ukraine, Iran.
Open issue →Lebanon Leads a Concentrated Deterioration Week
A concentrated deterioration week led by Lebanon, with the rest of the global picture remaining in watch or context status.
Open issue →Monthly synthesis
Monthly Geopolitical Risk Review
A selective monthly synthesis built from reviewed weekly deterioration. The section below updates automatically from published monthly review issues.
Iran Leads a War-Driven Monthly Deterioration Review
M3 2026 was defined less by one narrow domestic sequence than by a widening regional war. Iran was the clearest monthly anchor because it led W10, returned as a publication-grade case in W12, and remained the central driver of spillover cases from Iraq and Qatar to Lebanon. Lebanon emerged as the clearest end-month deterioration, while Cuba formed the month’s clearest non-war domestic sequence.
Open review →Mexico Leads a Fragmented Monthly Deterioration Review
M2 2026 was more fragmented than M1. Mexico formed the clearest in-month recurring deterioration sequence, while Iran produced the month’s sharpest single-week escalation at the end of the period. Nigeria and Pakistan defined the early-month security picture, and Senegal, Serbia, and Albania formed the clearest mid-month protest and legitimacy cluster.
Open review →Iran Leads a Persistence-Driven Monthly Deterioration Review
M1 2026 was defined less by breadth than by persistence. Iran was the clearest sustained monthly sequence, Syria formed the strongest secondary recurring conflict arc, Venezuela produced the sharpest early-month governance rupture, and Pakistan emerged as the clearest late-month acute lead.
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