Monthly synthesis
Bootstrap period · Reviewed weekly deterioration
A publication-style monthly review that synthesizes the clearest reviewed deterioration sequences across the month.
Built from analyst-reviewed weekly outputs, it rewards persistence over one-week spikes and is designed as a selective monthly analytical summary.
Published reviews
Each issue synthesizes the clearest reviewed deterioration sequences of the month rather than attempting a full country ledger.
M3 2026 was defined less by one narrow domestic sequence than by a widening regional war. Iran was the clearest monthly anchor because it led W10, returned as a publication-grade case in W12, and remained the central driver of spillover cases from Iraq and Qatar to Lebanon. Lebanon emerged as the clearest end-month deterioration, while Cuba formed the month’s clearest non-war domestic sequence.
Open review →M2 2026 was more fragmented than M1. Mexico formed the clearest in-month recurring deterioration sequence, while Iran produced the month’s sharpest single-week escalation at the end of the period. Nigeria and Pakistan defined the early-month security picture, and Senegal, Serbia, and Albania formed the clearest mid-month protest and legitimacy cluster.
Open review →M1 2026 was defined less by breadth than by persistence. Iran was the clearest sustained monthly sequence, Syria formed the strongest secondary recurring conflict arc, Venezuela produced the sharpest early-month governance rupture, and Pakistan emerged as the clearest late-month acute lead.
Open review →